Any country that pushes itself back from its current place at the EU table will do so only to have a seat at the “new” negotiating table which is being set as we speak. Brexit is about renegotiating the “rules of engagement” for the EU.
Since the attention-getting Brexit vote one week ago, just about everyone you can imagine has weighed in the subject. It’s now the official flavor of day. The metaphor which this historic vote supposedly represents is being spun by the best of them with predictions and prognostications about what is going to happen next as a result of this defiant vote.
Some are suggesting Brexit is a non-starter because of Article 50 of the Lisbon Treaty which can only be enacted by Parliament.
Remember, there is a two year window to either (1) negotiate or (2) undo this vote. If you look around the media you’ll see lots of discussion indicating there is no majority in Parliament for Brexit, nor was the referendum legally binding because it is said only Parliament can trigger Article 50.
This is by no means over. It will go legal. The lawyers are already involved. And U.S. Secretary of State John Kerry is already on record as saying the Brexit vote could be “walked back”.
Some, like Alan Greenspan, are asserting that other countries like Scotland will want to leave the EU as well. In fact, many EU countries are now talking about wanting to leave.
Brexit is about brinksmanship, negotiating prowess and leverage. It’s about aligning and redirecting what will ultimately be “renegotiated rules of engagement” on debt, regulations, sovereignty (and other issues) for all parties involved.
A long battle of isometrics is about to be unleashed between those who support Brexit and those who support the status quo. Success requires engagement and an unwavering tenacity that will be designed to wear even the strongest opposition down.